Post by pilotseason on Mar 11, 2014 16:22:05 GMT -5
Decided to do a little first round preview with a pick'em for anyone who wants to join. The numbers in parentheses is the team's power index (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency).
Wednesday Games
10 Midland (17.577) vs. Embry-Riddle (17.181)
This game has the opportunity to be an upset special. Embry-Riddle once sat atop the top 25 for four weeks this season and barely managed to receive an at large bid. Both teams have struggled a bit towards the end of the season, but I like Midland to prevail in the tightest game in the first round.
7 Saint Xavier (22.088) vs. Cincinnati Christian (12.629)
Maybe the hottest team in the tournament right now, save for Morningside, the Cougars are coming off a defeat of No. 1-ranked Cardinal Stritch. Look for them to continue their aggressive play behind All-American Brad Karp. Saint Xavier by double digits.
1 Cardinal Stritch (16.791) vs. Northern New Mexico (0.017)
Defending national champions are out to repeat against a NNMU squad that defeated two 20-win squads in the AII tournament to qualify. National Player of the Year front-runner Derek Semenas will ensure the Wolves don't become the first No. 1 seed since King in 1992 to lose in the first round. Cardinal Stritch in a blowout.
9 Davenport (22.715) vs. Ashford (16.141)
Ashford manages to sneak in the tournament despite losing to Northern New Mexico on their home court in the AII championship, but they get to face one of the stingiest defenses in Davenport (second-best defensive efficiency in the tournament). Davenport wins by double digits.
16 Huntington (16.975) vs. Southeastern (9.214)
In one of the most intriguing individual matchups of the first round, Huntington's Shane Merryman and Southeastern's Timothy Mitchell are set to have a battle royale in the paint. The Fire have a porous defense and the deciding factor will be the Forester's perimeter shooting. TJ Short and Ryan Boester power Huntington into the second round.
15 Cal Maritime (12.885) vs. Bethel (17.084)
As tamrik pointed out, Bethel will be the toughest team (in terms of Massey rating) the Keelhaulers have faced this year. Last season, CMA upended No. 4 Northwestern in the first round but then were eliminated by Grace in the second round. The Pilots can score with anybody, but the key in this game will be transition defense. I like Bethel to "upset" Cal Maritime.
2 College of Idaho (16.871) vs. College of the Ozarks (9.418)
So what does one of the hottest teams in the nation get the pleasure of doing? Trying to knock off Ozarks at home. The Yotes dominated the Cascade Conference all season long and are one of the most balanced teams in the field, but Ozarks' Nathan Simnioke is a talented forward. In the end, I think College of Idaho is too much for the hometown favorite in a game many people think will be closer than it actually will be.
8 Bellevue (22.729) vs. Concordia (16.999)
Despite being upended in the first round of the CCC playoffs, Concordia is a talented team with an All-American in Adam Herman. But Bellevue's top offense is also a well-oiled machine and can hurt you from the paint and the perimeter. In a possible trap game for the Bellevue, I still think they prevail in a close one.
Thursday Games
12 Morningside (11.794) vs. Oklahoma Wesleyan (8.635)
The hottest team in the field right now, Morningside gets a tough draw with Oklahoma Wesleyan, who can battle with anybody in the country. In a close game, Morningside comes away with the victory and remains a threat for a Final Four run.
5 Indiana Wesleyan (15.706) vs. Reinhardt (0.453)
The Wildcats gets set up with maybe the easiest opponent in the first round of any of the top seeds and the Mahurin brothers and senior leader Jordan Weider lead Indiana Wesleyan over Reinhardt in one of the most lopsided games of the first round.
4 Cornerstone (23.736) vs. Northwest Christian (4.378)
Cornerstone is firing on all cylinders now and is a dangerous team to watch out for. Northwest Christian is an upstart program in their first appearance at the national tournament. Coached by former Oregon All-American Luke Jackson, the Beacons, however, don't have what it takes to slow down Cornerstone's attack.
13 Northwood (14.101) vs. Friends (20.468)
An upset special, Northwood gets perhaps the toughest draw of any of the seeded teams against a dangerous Friends squad, led by Wichita State transfer Joe Mitchell and his NAIA-best 32.7 points per game. The Seahawks don't fare all that well in March (except for 2012) and I like Friends to continue the trend and reach the second round.
14 Saint Francis (9.448) vs. Robert Morris (8.839)
In what looks to be the most competitive first round game for the Crossroads League, the Cougars have a tough test in Robert Morris. But Saint Francis has battled against the top teams in the nation all year. In a tight one, Scott Kohne and Saint Francis get it done.
3 IU Southeast (18.831) vs. Tabor (3.781)
Looking nearly unbeatable all year, IU Southeast showed some kinks in their armor in the KIAC championship that they will need to work on to repeat their Final Four run from a season ago. Tabor got hot in the KCAC tournament and are looking for an upset bid, but IU Southeast is too much to handle.
11 Saint Thomas (9.504) vs. Union (16.898)
This is the most interesting matchup in the first round for me. Saint Thomas, while being the best team in the Sun Conference, have not proven themselves to be dominant this year. Union has had a great season and dominated their opponents, but is it enough to get the AAC their first win at the national tournament level in the conference's history? I think so. The Appalachians celebrate with Union on their historic victory.
6 Dordt (15.201) vs. William Penn (13.534)
In what will probably be the highest-scoring and most-exciting game of the first round, William Penn returns after a national runner-up appearance last season against Dordt, one of the best teams in the nation. In a dandy of a finale for the first round, the Defenders rely on their offense and Dordt squeaks by William Penn.
Wednesday Games
10 Midland (17.577) vs. Embry-Riddle (17.181)
This game has the opportunity to be an upset special. Embry-Riddle once sat atop the top 25 for four weeks this season and barely managed to receive an at large bid. Both teams have struggled a bit towards the end of the season, but I like Midland to prevail in the tightest game in the first round.
7 Saint Xavier (22.088) vs. Cincinnati Christian (12.629)
Maybe the hottest team in the tournament right now, save for Morningside, the Cougars are coming off a defeat of No. 1-ranked Cardinal Stritch. Look for them to continue their aggressive play behind All-American Brad Karp. Saint Xavier by double digits.
1 Cardinal Stritch (16.791) vs. Northern New Mexico (0.017)
Defending national champions are out to repeat against a NNMU squad that defeated two 20-win squads in the AII tournament to qualify. National Player of the Year front-runner Derek Semenas will ensure the Wolves don't become the first No. 1 seed since King in 1992 to lose in the first round. Cardinal Stritch in a blowout.
9 Davenport (22.715) vs. Ashford (16.141)
Ashford manages to sneak in the tournament despite losing to Northern New Mexico on their home court in the AII championship, but they get to face one of the stingiest defenses in Davenport (second-best defensive efficiency in the tournament). Davenport wins by double digits.
16 Huntington (16.975) vs. Southeastern (9.214)
In one of the most intriguing individual matchups of the first round, Huntington's Shane Merryman and Southeastern's Timothy Mitchell are set to have a battle royale in the paint. The Fire have a porous defense and the deciding factor will be the Forester's perimeter shooting. TJ Short and Ryan Boester power Huntington into the second round.
15 Cal Maritime (12.885) vs. Bethel (17.084)
As tamrik pointed out, Bethel will be the toughest team (in terms of Massey rating) the Keelhaulers have faced this year. Last season, CMA upended No. 4 Northwestern in the first round but then were eliminated by Grace in the second round. The Pilots can score with anybody, but the key in this game will be transition defense. I like Bethel to "upset" Cal Maritime.
2 College of Idaho (16.871) vs. College of the Ozarks (9.418)
So what does one of the hottest teams in the nation get the pleasure of doing? Trying to knock off Ozarks at home. The Yotes dominated the Cascade Conference all season long and are one of the most balanced teams in the field, but Ozarks' Nathan Simnioke is a talented forward. In the end, I think College of Idaho is too much for the hometown favorite in a game many people think will be closer than it actually will be.
8 Bellevue (22.729) vs. Concordia (16.999)
Despite being upended in the first round of the CCC playoffs, Concordia is a talented team with an All-American in Adam Herman. But Bellevue's top offense is also a well-oiled machine and can hurt you from the paint and the perimeter. In a possible trap game for the Bellevue, I still think they prevail in a close one.
Thursday Games
12 Morningside (11.794) vs. Oklahoma Wesleyan (8.635)
The hottest team in the field right now, Morningside gets a tough draw with Oklahoma Wesleyan, who can battle with anybody in the country. In a close game, Morningside comes away with the victory and remains a threat for a Final Four run.
5 Indiana Wesleyan (15.706) vs. Reinhardt (0.453)
The Wildcats gets set up with maybe the easiest opponent in the first round of any of the top seeds and the Mahurin brothers and senior leader Jordan Weider lead Indiana Wesleyan over Reinhardt in one of the most lopsided games of the first round.
4 Cornerstone (23.736) vs. Northwest Christian (4.378)
Cornerstone is firing on all cylinders now and is a dangerous team to watch out for. Northwest Christian is an upstart program in their first appearance at the national tournament. Coached by former Oregon All-American Luke Jackson, the Beacons, however, don't have what it takes to slow down Cornerstone's attack.
13 Northwood (14.101) vs. Friends (20.468)
An upset special, Northwood gets perhaps the toughest draw of any of the seeded teams against a dangerous Friends squad, led by Wichita State transfer Joe Mitchell and his NAIA-best 32.7 points per game. The Seahawks don't fare all that well in March (except for 2012) and I like Friends to continue the trend and reach the second round.
14 Saint Francis (9.448) vs. Robert Morris (8.839)
In what looks to be the most competitive first round game for the Crossroads League, the Cougars have a tough test in Robert Morris. But Saint Francis has battled against the top teams in the nation all year. In a tight one, Scott Kohne and Saint Francis get it done.
3 IU Southeast (18.831) vs. Tabor (3.781)
Looking nearly unbeatable all year, IU Southeast showed some kinks in their armor in the KIAC championship that they will need to work on to repeat their Final Four run from a season ago. Tabor got hot in the KCAC tournament and are looking for an upset bid, but IU Southeast is too much to handle.
11 Saint Thomas (9.504) vs. Union (16.898)
This is the most interesting matchup in the first round for me. Saint Thomas, while being the best team in the Sun Conference, have not proven themselves to be dominant this year. Union has had a great season and dominated their opponents, but is it enough to get the AAC their first win at the national tournament level in the conference's history? I think so. The Appalachians celebrate with Union on their historic victory.
6 Dordt (15.201) vs. William Penn (13.534)
In what will probably be the highest-scoring and most-exciting game of the first round, William Penn returns after a national runner-up appearance last season against Dordt, one of the best teams in the nation. In a dandy of a finale for the first round, the Defenders rely on their offense and Dordt squeaks by William Penn.
