Bracketology 2/25

[fire]

Upset Wednesday!  Without a horse in the race, I am pulling for Spring Arbor get make the trip to Branson.

As mentioned the Cascade also saw some key upsets last night.  #22 Concordia moves closer to the bubble with their loss to Oregon Tech and RV Southern Oregon is really hoping the favorites win out to have a chance.  Crazy to think that Southern Oregon was ranked #2 at one point. An interesting part of the Cascade is that they re-seed so #5 seeded Northwest gets a home game and avoids College of Idaho until the final.  Also, if College of Idaho gets to the final, its opponent (Northwest or Northwest Christian) earns second second automatic bid.  Sure glad the Crossroads is not that way anymore.  Too much stock put into a conference tournament especially if a team gets to advance to National Tournament without winning the conference tournament.  So if Grace or Spring Arbor go they will have to earn it.

From a national perspective, Saturday will be an important day for the bubble teams. If seeds hold true with WHAC and CCAC, then two more automatics will be determined before the conference final being played (Davenport/St. Xavier).  With Midland being upset, the bubble teams will also be rooting for Morningside to get it done.

Obviously, most of us are interested in seeing result of Bethel/IWU.  One big question is if Bethel advances to the final, does Moore change the conference rating?  same question if they win the tournament?  Doing so, could compromise Huntington depending on the state of the bubble.  At the same time, you could argue Bethel would deserve a better seed then where they presently stand.

[fire]

How much do the raters use the Massey to determine ratings/seedings? The reason I ask I noticed Midland moved up 1 spot after losing at home last night to Dakota Wesleyan and Bethel moved down 4 spots after beating Marian.  Not sure how that makes sense.

[mikey]

Fire,

Two quick comments, first regarding the Massey ratings, it is my understanding that the ratings are not all that accurate. There are teams within our (CL/MCC) conference where the rankings are incorrect. There are teams that have games included in rankings that should not be, and there are teams with games not included in the rankings that should be. As a result I doubt that the conference coaches who do the rankings AND are aware of these errors place much credence on the Massey ratings.

Secondly, I understand your brevity in your post but "Moore" is COACH MATT MOORE, OR COACH MOORE. He is NOT "Moore". I apologize for being overly sensitive but he is my brother, and has earned his stripes. I am sure you meant no disrespect but since I was posting about the Massey ratings I thought I would add that comment.

[fire]

Mikey,

Thanks for the clarification with the Massey.  I have seen it referenced is some previous posts and thought there were some holes.

I appreciate your comment about your brother and absolutely no disrespect meant when referring to Coach Moore. I refer to my best friend by his last name and though your brother is not my best friend-seen him coach but never met him-I actually think he is doing a solid job. From the outside looking in it looks like they just needed a few breaks and could have turned the corner a bit this year.  As you know, they had Huntington on the ropes the first time around. And if not for a miracle finish for St. Francis (not to mention a spineless official who should have called an intentional foul on USF), they would have had two signature wins.  

[naiabball24]

I won't get into the name distinction of your brother however, I do think he does a good job as a conference ranted in probably the toughest conference to rate as well as so many close losses as fire outlines.

In regard to the Massey I would argue that some rater probably do try to use it when it is in their favor but disregard it and display it's flaws when it is not in their favor. I don't know this for a fact but it would be my guess. I wonder if your brother would have any insight into the issue without obviously violating as a rater. Id be great to hear a point of view that is 1st hand and dealing with these questions.

[The Pilot]

My people have been working very hard! Shout out to them!

Other conferences with 2 bids still remaining to see who gets the 2nd bid.

Tourney Champ / Tourney Runner-Up If #1 Seed Wins
AAC
CCAC
CCC
GPAC
WHAC

Tourney Champ / #2 Seed if #1 Seed Wins
CL
KCAC
SUN

These are the teams still alive that could steal a bid. The AAC and KCAC teams are not included since they do not have teams ranked high enough to steal any bids.
Steal.doc (54.5 KB)

[The Pilot]

Again, shout out to my boy!

In this scenario our match-ups are:
CL
#16 HU vs. Southeastern (FL)
#14 USF vs. Robert Morris (IL)
Bethel vs. #15 Cal Maritime
#4 IWU vs. C of O

WHAC
#5 Cornerstone vs. Southern Oregon
#10 Davenport vs. Embry-Riddle

Bracket:
Bracketology 2-27.pdf (424.84 KB)

[fire]

Tremendous work by Pilot and his team.  As you pointed out, tonight and tomorrow have some key games and by Sunday we could have a very clear picture of how many bids have been stolen/saved.  I am very curious how the conference rankings from specific raters  (CL, GPAC, SUN) look after conference tournaments.  By that time, it should be pretty clear who is getting in then it is a matter of seeding.  If Bethel wins tournament and maybe if they get to the final, there is some justification for moving them to #2 above USF and HU. For Bethel, this could mean the difference of a second round game vs. a top 3 seed for #4-7, which I think is a big difference this year. Another interesting one will be the Cascade.  Does Northwest jump Southern Oregon and Concordia?  How it is done will dictate if they get a third bid most likely.

Always fun to look at possible match-ups.  If this version holds true, the WHAC get some tough first round match-ups (Southern Oregon was #2 at one point and Embry Riddle #1) and after last year's first round struggles there will be some added pressure.  

[blue2blue]

The 'scenario' that jumps out at me is #4 IWU playing C of O. Playing the host team first round often proves 'one game and out' for their opponent.

[fire]

I believe we have the official/unofficial #32 seed with Virginia Intermont getting to the AAC championship where they will play Union.  Union received the first automatic by virtue of winning the regular season championship.

[blue2blue]

Union. If I'm not mistaken, the alma mater of Rick Mahorn of Chicago Bull fame.

[Deleted]

Rick Mahorn - don't you mean of Detroit Pistons fame? I don't think Mahorn played for the Bulls, He also played college ball at Hampton Institute.

[blue2blue]

Pistons, yep.

[The Pilot]

One upset last night. MCC #1 and #27 in nation St. Ambrose got upset. Only affects #28 Hastings' at large chances. Don't think St. Ambrose will survive being on the bubble for long. They are the team below us.
#27 St. Ambrose, #28 Hastings, #29 Marian.

[Deleted]

USF would have been in with an automatic berth only if IWU won the CL tournament. Since IWU lost, the second CL automatic berth will go either to Bethel or Grace, whichever wins Tuesday night. So USF and Huntington will get in with at large berths. I don't think Marian will get in, so the CL should get four teams in. But if Grace upsets Bethel, then I think the CL gets 5 teams in - IWU and Grace (automatics) along with Bethel, USF, and Huntington (at larges). Does that sound correct?