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Post by naiabball24 on Feb 25, 2014 23:32:58 GMT -5
1. Cardinal Stritch (Wis.) CCAC regular season Champ 2 IU Southeast (Ind.) Projected KIAC tourney champ 3. College of Idaho CCC regular season champ 4. Indiana Wesleyan Cross regular season champ 5. Cornerstone (Mich.) WHAC regular season Champion 6. Dordt (Iowa) GPAC regular season Champ 7. Saint Xavier (Ill.) CCAC projected tourney champ/runner-up to Stritch 8. Midland (Neb.) GPAC projected tourney champ/runner-up to Dordt 9. Davenport (Mich.) WHAC projected tourney champ/runner-up to CU 10. Bellevue (Neb.) MCAC projected tourney champ 11. St. Thomas (Fla.) SUN regular season champ 12. Saint Francis (Ind.) Cross projected tourney champ/runner-up to IWU 13. Northwood (Fla.) SUN projected tourney champ/runner-up to STU 14. Cal Maritime CPAC projected tourney champ 15. Morningside (Iowa) At-Large #1 16. Huntington (Ind.) At-Large #2 17. Southeastern (Fla.) At-Large #3 18. Bethel (Ind.) At-Large #4 19. Robert Morris (Ill.) At-Large #5 20. Embry-Riddle (Fla.) At-Large #6 21. Friends (Kan.) KCAC regular season champ 22. Concordia (Ore.) CCC projected tourney champ/runner up to COI 23. Ashford (Iowa)- AII projected champ 24. Union (Ky.) AAC- Regular season champ 25. Oklahoma Wesleyan At-Large #7 26. Southern Oregon At-large #8 27. St. Ambrose (Iowa) MCC projected tourney champ 28. Hastings (Neb.) At-Large #9 29. Marian (Ind.) At-Large #10 30.Sterling (Kan.) KCAC projected tourney champ/runner up to Friends 31.College of Ozarks: automatic bid 32. Reinhardt AAC tourney champ/runner up to union
Last 4 in: OKU SOU Hastings Marian
First 2 out: Northwest Northwestern Ohio
This is barring no upsets mind you which never really happens but most upsets end up working out similarly because the team that is most likely to upset a team is a team already getting an at-Large bid. The teams that bubble teams have to be rooting for are: ISEU, Cal Maritime, and Ashford because they are one bid leagues but would all 3 would get at large bids if they lost in my opinion.
This would break down with: Crossroad:5 SUN:4 CCC: 3 AAC: 2 CPAC: 1 CCAC: 3 AII: 1 GPAC: 4 KCAC: 2 KIAC: 1 MCAC: 3 MCC: 1 NSAA: 0 WHAC 2
My opinion Ashford is the lowest team that is safe if they lose as far as receiving a bid. Usually there is not an extensive amount of movement after conference tournaments but there are always some minor changes.
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Post by tamrik on Feb 26, 2014 0:03:30 GMT -5
great job! Thanks
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Post by naiabball24 on Feb 26, 2014 0:12:54 GMT -5
My pleasure, it is a great time of year. The fact that there were only 32 teams represented in the top 25 i.e. only 7 RV is intriguing and bodes well for Marian and northwestern ohio in that there are not a ton of teams on their heels if the upsets are few and far between. Marian is competing against Hasting, SOU, northwest, and Northwestern Ohio. With no upsets 3 of those 5 will make it but how they fair in the conference tourney could change some votes and dictate who goes dancing.
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Post by The Pilot on Feb 26, 2014 7:32:20 GMT -5
I see things a little differently. I think Marian's season will be over if we beat them. Although if they beat us, we could get flip flopped and we could possibly be done. Marian: Lack of signature wins in non-conference. Total wins plays a factor in rating since raters can't see teams. They rely on numbers on paper. They were only 4-1 in a terrible non conference schedule. (Holy Cross, Florida National, Ave Maria, Kean, and Grove City. 65-74 combined record, including HCC's 20-win season.) Bracketology 2-25.pdf (425.17 KB)
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Post by pilotseason on Feb 26, 2014 11:06:17 GMT -5
naiabball24 - You're missing the North Start Athletic Association projected tourney champ, Jamestown, so that would leave Marian on the first one out
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Post by naiabball24 on Feb 26, 2014 12:56:23 GMT -5
Pilotseason, The only way Jamestown gets in is if they win their conference tournament and get into top 25. Because they only have 5 teams that's the only way they can get a bid. 6 teams to get 1 automatic and 10 to get 2 automatic.
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fire
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Post by fire on Feb 26, 2014 13:00:45 GMT -5
I believe that the only way a team from the North Star gets a bid is if one finishes in the top 25 in the final poll. Before last week, Jamestown had a very outside chance but then they lost to Dakota State. Do not think the Star will get a bid as a result no matter what happens in its tournament.
As I understand it, the final poll dictates the at large teams for Branson. Do the seeds in the bracket mirror the poll as well?
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fire
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Post by fire on Feb 26, 2014 13:01:55 GMT -5
Should have clarified with the Star. The reason for the situation being different with them is because they do not have the required 6 teams to get an automatic bid. Believe that will change for them next year.
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Post by pilotseason on Feb 26, 2014 14:57:36 GMT -5
Ah, I understand.
The final poll will dictate the at large teams but not necessarily the seeds. In any of the 4 quadrants, they try to separate conference teams and any opponents previously faced by teams. so for instance, IWU, USF, HU, and BC would all be in separate quadrants and if MU makes it, then there'd have to be 2 in the same quadrant.
And say for instance, Northwood ends up #15 in the final poll and Bethel #18. Well the seedings in the bracket would dictate they should face each other in the opening round, but since they already played once this season, they cannot meet again until at least the quarterfinal round (Elite Eight, Saturday's games). So the final seeds are based on conference alignments within the four quadrants and any common opponents teams have faced.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2014 16:59:43 GMT -5
Ah, I understand. The final poll will dictate the at large teams but not necessarily the seeds. In any of the 4 quadrants, they try to separate conference teams and any opponents previously faced by teams. so for instance, IWU, USF, HU, and BC would all be in separate quadrants and if MU makes it, then there'd have to be 2 in the same quadrant. And say for instance, Northwood ends up #15 in the final poll and Bethel #18. Well the seedings in the bracket would dictate they should face each other in the opening round, but since they already played once this season, they cannot meet again until at least the quarterfinal round (Elite Eight, Saturday's games). So the final seeds are based on conference alignments within the four quadrants and any common opponents teams have faced. True - well researched as well. I did not know that about Bethel and Northwood; interesting. I don't think Jamestown will be in the Top 25, as they did not even get any votes in the last poll.
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fire
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Post by fire on Feb 26, 2014 18:10:25 GMT -5
Pilot, great job with the PDF bracket. Some intriguing potential match-ups for sure. Looking forward to the evolution of the bracket. Can't wait for tonight's games and really appreciate the fact that most schools have a video feed along with live stats. Going to have several browsers working for sure!
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Post by The Pilot on Feb 27, 2014 7:19:15 GMT -5
3 upsets in the CCC tonight means Marian's bubble is officially burst. 2, 3, and 4 seeds all lost meaning some other team from the CCC will jump up and steal a bid. #28 Hastings on the bubble now.
The CL will still get 4 teams in, and possibly 5. IWU and Bethel are now locked in. The winner of SAU/Grace gets the other automatic bid IF IWU beats Bethel Saturday. **Tourney Automatic Bid goes to the tournament runner up if the regular season champ wins the tournament** To sum it all up, if IWU makes it to the championship game, whoever makes it with them gets the other automatic.
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Post by Axman on Feb 27, 2014 8:10:40 GMT -5
The CL will still get 4 teams in, and possibly 5. IWU and Bethel are now locked in. The winner of SAU/Grace gets the other automatic bid IF IWU beats Bethel Saturday. **Tourney Automatic Bid goes to the tournament runner up if the regular season champ wins the tournament** To sum it all up, if IWU makes it to the championship game, whoever makes it with them gets the other automatic.
The procedures manual states the following..."The 2nd place regular season finisher, #2 seed, will receive the 2nd automatic bid to the NAIA National Championship in the event that the regular season champions are the same as the tournament champions." ...which would mean USF gets the automatic bid not the loser to IWU in the championship game.
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Post by jbh on Feb 27, 2014 9:11:29 GMT -5
The CL will still get 4 teams in, and possibly 5. IWU and Bethel are now locked in. The winner of SAU/Grace gets the other automatic bid IF IWU beats Bethel Saturday. **Tourney Automatic Bid goes to the tournament runner up if the regular season champ wins the tournament** To sum it all up, if IWU makes it to the championship game, whoever makes it with them gets the other automatic.
The procedures manual states the following..."The 2nd place regular season finisher, #2 seed, will receive the 2nd automatic bid to the NAIA National Championship in the event that the regular season champions are the same as the tournament champions." ...which would mean USF gets the automatic bid not the loser to IWU in the championship game. That is the way I understand it. IWU and USF are in. HU and BC are probables. MU is a probably not.
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Post by The Pilot on Feb 27, 2014 9:24:57 GMT -5
The CL will still get 4 teams in, and possibly 5. IWU and Bethel are now locked in. The winner of SAU/Grace gets the other automatic bid IF IWU beats Bethel Saturday. **Tourney Automatic Bid goes to the tournament runner up if the regular season champ wins the tournament** To sum it all up, if IWU makes it to the championship game, whoever makes it with them gets the other automatic.
The procedures manual states the following..."The 2nd place regular season finisher, #2 seed, will receive the 2nd automatic bid to the NAIA National Championship in the event that the regular season champions are the same as the tournament champions." ...which would mean USF gets the automatic bid not the loser to IWU in the championship game. Yeah, I just saw this in the other thread. Either way we could still get up to 5 teams in, depending on SAU/Grace winning the tourney, and Marian is out.
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