One game left

[tamrik]

Standings and remaining opponents.

Indiana Wesleyan 14-3 @marian
Huntington 12-5 Taylor
Marian 12-5 IWU
Saint Francis 12-5 @goshen
Bethel 11-6 Grace
Grace 8-9 @bethel
Spring Arbor 5-12 @mvnu
Taylor 5-12 @hu
MVNU 4-13 SAU
Goshen 2-15 USF

IWU has first locked in regardless of the outcome Saturday

Huntington, Marian and Saint Francis are tied for second. Marian plays IWU, Huntington plays Taylor and USF plays Goshen.

If Marian loses on Saturday and If HU and USF win, they tie on head to head. However, USF split with IWU and HU lost twice at IWU. In this scenario, USF gets 2nd and HU gets 3rd.
If Marian wins on Saturday and HU and USF also win, USF also takes the tie-breaker with Marian (head to head). Since Marian and HU split, and Marian would have beaten IWU once, in this scenario, Marian gets third and HU fourth.

This means that if USF wins, they get 2nd.

If Marian wins they will be 2nd if USF loses, or third if USF also wins.

If HU wins, they need both USF and Marian to lose to take 2nd and could fall as far as fourth

If Bethel wins Saturday, they will tie with anybody that loses on Saturday. Head to head, Bethel lost 2 to HU but split with Marian, USF, and IWU. If USF, HU, and Marian lose and Bethel wins, it gets interesting. HU wins the tiebreak over Bethel on head-to-head. USF and Marian win the tie-break over Bethel because they split with HU and Bethel did not. I believe that this means that Bethel will lose tie-breaks to any of the top four. If that is correct, Bethel is locked into fifth no matter what happens Saturday

Grace is locked into 6th

Seventh and eighth are also interesting. MVNU's win over Grace means that if they beat Spring Arbor on Saturday they could be tied with Spring Arbor. In addition, if Taylor loses Saturday, that could turn into a three-way tie. All three teams are 1-1 head to head. All three teams are 0-2 vs IWU, USF, Marian and Huntington. Taylor split with Bethel and gets the tie-break over both SAU and MVNU. Since Taylor is 1 game ahead of MVNU, Taylor will be either 7th or 8th whether they win or lose However, If MVNU wins Saturday they match up with SAU from top top bottom. 0-2 with IWU, USF, Marian, HU, Bethel. 1-1 with Grace, Taylor and each other, and 2-0 vs Goshen. Coin toss for the 8th spot?

If Taylor wins they are 7th, if they lose they could fall to 8th
If SAU wins they could be 7th or 8th depending on Taylor
If MVNU wins, I have no idea what happens but I think either a coin-toss or a play-in game

No matter what, after Saturday, Goshen finishes 10th and is done

I may have missed something...

[tubballfan]

Thanks Tamrik, was wondering how this would play out...

[cougars13]

The tiebreaker between MVNU and SAU would go SAU's way right now. After head to head and wins against conference opponents, it goes to league road wins. Both teams have two. The next step is Massey rating. SAU checks in at 66 right now while MVNU is 93. I highly doubt MVNU would make up that gap, so it seems like the teams are set for the conference tournament at this point.

[cougars13]

Oh and a coin flip would occur if the Massey ratings were the same and national ratings, which obviously neither are in. So if somehow the teams tie on the Massey ratings I believe a coin flip would occur.

This is on the league website under procedures manual.

[cougars13]

FWIW, here are all ten teams current Massey Ratings after Tuesday night's games.

IWU 6
Bethel 14
Marian 16
USF 17
HU 19
Grace 41
SAU 66
Taylor 69
MVNU 93
Goshen 107

[tamrik]

When it comes down to who gets into the conference tournament, the league should consider a play-in game. it would be much more fun than a coin toss or the Massey Ratings. In addition it would help to take into account that MVNU is starting to play some good ball, and SAU has lost like 7 straight.

[rubalamp]

I still find those rankings odd, given Bethel has lost twice to Huntington, but ultimately they are all almost equal after IWU...

[Axman]

Feb 18, 2014 22:47:32 GMT -5 tamrik said:

If Marian wins they will be 2nd if USF loses, or third if USF also wins.

If HU wins, they need both USF and Marian to lose to take 2nd and could fall as far as fourth

HU secures no less than the 3rd seed if they win Saturday.

A tie between USF, HU, and MU is broken by the aggregate record between the tied teams. USF is 3-1, HU is 2-2, and MU is 1-3.