2014 Berths to Branson

[Deleted]

Since we are at or near just 4 games remaining in the regular season, I am going to create a thread listing each of the teams who qualify for Branson - both when they qualify, and how they qualify.

Ozarks - host berth

Cornerstone - WHAC regular season champion

Cardinal Stritch - CCAC regular season champion

College of Idaho (formerly Albertson) - CCC regular season champion

Indiana Wesleyan - CL regular season champion

Union - AAC regular season champion

Dordt - GPAC regular season champion

Friends - KCAC regular season champion

Saint Thomas - TSC regular season champion

Virginia Intermont - AAC tournament runner up vs. AAC regular season champion Union.

Saint Xavier - CCAC tournament champion.

Davenport - WHAC tournament finalist vs. WHAC regular season champion Cornerstone.

Cincinatti Christian - KIAC tournament champion.

Morningside - GPAC tournament finalist vs. GPAC regular season champion Dordt.

Northern New Mexico AII tournament champion.

Northwest Christian - CCC tournament finals vs. College of Idaho.

William Penn - MCC tournament champion.

Tabor - KCAC tournament champion

Jamestown - AII tournament champion

Cal Maritime - CalPac tournament champion

Bethel - CL tournament champion.

Northwood - TSC tournament champion.

Bellevue - MCAC tournament champion.

[cougars13]

What is usually the cut off for teams making it in? Does the 25th ranked team normally receive an at large or where does that cut off normally fall?

[tamrik]

where's Bowen when we need him?

[mikey]

Cougars & Tamrik,

I appreciate both of your thoughtful contributions to this discussion. It is my understanding that there is some question/dispute regarding the accuracy of the Massey ratings. From what I heard there are some games included in some teams Massey ratings that should not be included. I don't have the details, this could be due to exhibition games. There are also some games that are not included in some teams Massey ratings that should be included.

That being said I heard that throwing out the Massey ratings as a means of a tie-breaker for the tournament requires a unanimous vote by the coaches which would then force the coin toss. Honestly I think a play in game between MVNU and Spring Arbor would be better than a coin toss. I think both teams/coaches would prefer slugging it out on the court say Monday as opposed to a coin toss to determine their fate.

[Deleted]

Typically the lowest at large falls to around #25-27. Last year Lourdes got in at #26 as the last at large. I think the lowest I've seen it drop is #28. So if Marian can stay at around #26, they have a good chance to get in. But it all depends (or at least largely depends) on how the conference tournaments go. Marian will want as many as possible of the 1-25 teams, for example, to get in with automatic berths. But if 4 CL teams are ranked ahead of them, only two of those teams can get automatic berths, so at least 2 at larges will go to CL teams. Right now IWU has clinched one automatic berth. It would help Marian if one of the other CL teams ahead of them (Bethel, Huntington, or USF) gets the other automatic berth. On the other hand, it hurts Marian if, say, Taylor were to get hot and win the CL tournament. The teams that have clinched automatic berths so far (with their ranking from 2/18) are #1 Cardinal Stritch, #2 IU Southeast, #3 Cornerstone, #5 College of Idaho, and #6 IWU. Ozarks is currently unranked, but if they were to win the MCAC tournament (possible but not likely, imo), there would be one more at large berth available. But Bellevue is #10, so that probably does not make any difference.

[grace]

Right now the last team in would be would be #29 Concordia (Ore.) out of the CCC. So Marian is only 27 vote above them and only 1 vote from the next at-large spot Hastings and most of the time there is 1 or two upsets in conference tourney play. I have a feeling the Marian doesn't win there 1st game in the tourney there be like Taylor last year and be the first team out. Then again the 5th team for the CL may be outside of the Top 5 (Last years upsets and a very ? Grace College team could win 3 straight).

Marian plays IWU Saturday at home and needs to win that game to lock up a first round home game. Marian has not been good on the road this year compared to them being at home vs. top teams so a home game would be a bounus for them.

As of Right now there 1st round team they would face is.

vs. Grace College - 12 37.5% (Grace must wins at Bethel if not Grace drops down to 4 chances to play MU)
@ Bethel College - 8 25% (Bethel Wins and MU Lost)
vs. Bethel College- 6 18.8% (Bethel, MU, and HU win)
vs. Taylor U. - 4 12.5% (HU AND USF lose and MU wins)
vs. SAU - 2 6.2% (HU AND USF lose and MU wins plus a TU lose and SAU WIN.)

[Deleted]

A question for anyone who may know: IU Southeast is once again the runaway winner of the KIAC. The KIAC has 10 teams, but according to the DII Qualifications Plan, the KIAC only has 9 teams eligible for the post season (St. Louis Pharmacy is suspended for some reason, and is not eligible for NAIA post season). Does this mean that the KIAC only gets one automatic berth to Branson? I am assuming so, but if anyone knows, could you post the information here? Thanks for any help anyone can offer.

[grace]

CUfan you are correct that the KIAC only has one bid this year with 9 teams ( not included SLCOP). Next year they add another team and will have two bids.

There are 21 auto
1 Host
10 at-large spots


NSA has a automatic if they are in the TOP 25 but Jamestown is there leader and I don't see them getting there.

[Deleted]

Yes, that's what I figured. The seven teams I've listed above are the only ones that I know to be in with automatics so far, but there should be some more this weekend following the final games. CU's loss to Aquinas should not drop them too much, provided of course that they can beat Lawrence Tech tomorrow. It's still possible that 5 CL teams will get in, but it will depend on how the raters deal with the tournament results. I would think that if Marian loses their first CL tourney game, they might not get in - but who knows?

[Deleted]

Feb 21, 2014 1:24:41 GMT -5 grace said:

CUfan you are correct that the KIAC only has one bid this year with 9 teams ( not included SLCOP). Next year they add another team and will have two bids.

There are 21 auto
1 Host
10 at-large spots


NSA has a automatic if they are in the TOP 25 but Jamestown is there leader and I don't see them getting there.

grace, do you know who the KIAC is adding to their conference next year? And how long is the suspension for SLCOP, and what was it for? Just curious.

[fire]

Good news for the league last night with Friends winning (#23).  I would think CL teams would want as many of the presently ranked teams to earn automatic bids.  This would allow the prospect of 5 teams to Branson to become a reality because it does not allow for a third team in a conference like the Cascade, second team from MCAC, MCC, etc. to sneak in.

  As far as the regular season goes, I think Marian and  to a slightly lesser extent Bethel have must-win games (excuse the oxymoron there with Bethel).  Obviously, winning the conference tournament cures all ills but it will be interesting to see how far Bethel falls with the Taylor loss. I know a great deal of talk has centered on the rater and the job he is doing. This will be a very revealing weekend.  Provided Huntington and USF win, does he keep HU at two?  He could tie them but I really think that hedging the bet ends up splitting votes at this point in the year.

Those who have followed it much closer in the past: How much stock is put into a great run in conference tournament (but not winning it)?  Do you typically see a lot of movement in the last poll? 

[Deleted]

Actually, Friends has not clinched the a berth to Branson yet - they can do that if they win tomorrow at Tabor. (Ironically, wasn't it Tabor who upset Bethel in 1996 in the second round in Idaho - thus preventing Bethel from pulling the four-peat in the NAIA D2 national tournament?) So Friends has not clinched an automatic berth yet, but they look like they should - though Tabor is 17-11 overall and 10-7 in the KCAC, so who knows. But yes, if Friends gets the automatic berth at #23 (or higher), that is good news for Marian at #26.

At #15, I think Bethel is in with no worse than an at large if they beat Grace at the Wiekamp on Saturday. A win over Grace and a first round CL tournament win and Bethel is in for sure, imo.

As for the movement in the final poll - yes, there is, but it tends to be on the low end of the rankings. That is, the 23-28 positions have a lot of movement. That's why I'm not a big fan of the additional poll that comes out after the conference tournament. I realize that the additional games in the tournament add to a team's full body of work. But the final poll is not really a poll - it's really a tournament selection committee, as the raters will lobby for one of their teams to get in at #2X. Bottom line, though, is that ratings are always political, especially the final poll.

[fire]

Gotcha, I assumed that Friends would win the tie breaker even if they lost but good call.  Not sure how KCAC tie breaker works but if it is like most Friends would get the nod.  Friends and Sterling both split with Bethany with Sterling being swept by St. Mary's and Friends splitting with St. Mary's.  Good call with Tabor-just saw they beat Friends the first time around and this one is at Tabor.

Very interesting insight about the final rating.  Do they do some type of conference call for that?  I could imagine it could get pretty heated especially as you pointed out with the movement centering on the last few teams.  Does the NAIA have an oversight person who has the final say or does the final poll rely strictly on raters?

I would agree with you regarding Bethel.  They should be fine though I could see them sliding closer to #20 next week with Southeastern, Morningside, and potentially USF jumping them.

What would be your take on a team like Ashford sitting at #21?  Do they need to win independent tourney?  I just saw that they have a win at Huntington.

One of the interesting things about this year to me is the Cascade.  Last year they sent four teams and have routinely sent at least three.  This is a big weekend for them as its #2 team-Southern Oregon-goes on the road with one being at RV Concordia.  If they lose two, the prospect of only getting two teams in becomes real and to be honest surprising.

Thanks for the conversation-always great to talk hoop!

[Deleted]

The KCAC tiebreaker is the most complicated tiebreaker I've ever seen. Here it is:

Tie Breaking Procedures:
 To break ties for tournament seeding, the following criteria shall be used, in the presented order as needed:
1. Cumulative record versus all tied teams.
2. Modified Krause System using only KCAC games with records used at the time of the game; (5 points, win against a winning team away; 4 points, win against a winning team at home; 4 points, win against a losing team away; 3 points, win against a losing team at home; 2 points, loss against a winning team away; 1 point, loss against a winning team at home; 1 point, loss against a losing team away, 0 points, loss against a losing team at home). The record considered is opponents’ overall KCAC record at the time of the game. Record of .500 is considered a winning record. The rating will be cumulative and distributed to KCAC coaches weekly.
3. Overall winning percentage against common NAIA Division II teams.
4. Overall winning percentage against NAIA Division II teams.
5. Overall winning percentage against all NAIA teams.
6. Coin toss.

Incredible, eh? Fortunately, Friends won at Tabor today, albeit in OT, so they win the KCAC outright.

I believe they do have some sort of conference call for the final ranking, although they could simply have each one submit their ballots. I'm not sure if they have a conference call/discussion first or not. Bethel is almost certainly in after today's win over Grace, though I was a little surprised at how close it was. If Bethel wins their first CL tournament game, I'd bet the farm that they are in.

Ashford does have to win the independent tournament in order to get the automatic berth, so I'm sure that Marian and similar teams will be rooting for them, especially if Marian does not advance out of the first round in the CL tournament. In my opinion, the CL is this year's CCC conference - I expect them to get four teams in (IWU already in with the regular season championship automatic berth; Huntington, Bethel, Saint Francis - I think one of those three will win the CL tournament if IWU does not. But if Marian wins the CL tournament, I think the CL will definitely get 5 teams in. I'm not sure if that has ever happened before.

The CCC games are all 7:30 tipoffs PST, so we won't know those results for few hours..

[Deleted]

There are currently 9 automatic berths determined (see above) including Ozarks. The following conference automatic berths are yet to be determined:

AAC - second automatic berth goes either to the conference tournament winner, or to regular season runner up Reinardt if Union wins the conference tournament.

AII - AII tournament winner. #1 Ashford vs. #4 Fisher; #2 Northern New Mexico vs. #3 Rochester (MI). Semis on Friday, Feb. 28; Finals on Saturday, March 1

CalPac - CalPac tournament winner. #1 Cal Maritine vs. #4 Menlo; #2 William Jessup vs. #3 Simpson. Semis on Saturday, March 1; finals on Monday, March 3

CCC - Conference tournament winner, or conference tournament runner up if College of Idaho wins the CCC tournament.

CCAC - Conference tournament winner gets the second CCAC automatic berth. If Cardinal Stritch wins the CCAC tournament, the second CCAC automatic berth goes to conference tournament runner up.

CL - Conference tournament winner gets the second CL automatic berth. If IWU wins the CL tournament, the CL tournament runner up gets the second CL automatic berth.

GPAC - Here's how their web site words it (!?) - "The first automatic berth to the national tournament for the GPAC will be awarded to the conference tournament champion. The second automatic berth will be awarded to the highest seed in the tournament that does not win the conference tournament. If the highest seed wins the conference tournament, the second automatic berth goes to the conference tournament runner up."

KCAC - Conference tournament winner gets the second KCAC automatic berth. "If the regular season champion is also the post‐season
tournament champion, then the #2 seed in the conference tournament will be the second qualifier to the NAIA National Tournament." - KCAC website.

KIAC - The winner of the KIAC tournament wins the only KIAC automatic berth to the national tournament.

MCAC - The winner of the MCAC tournament wins the only MCAC automatic berth to the national tournament.

MCC - (i.e., Midwest Collegiate Conference) - The winner of the MCC tournament receives the only MCC automatic berth to the national tournament.

NSAA - The NSAA receives one automatic berth to the national tournament, but only if that conference champion is in the Top 25. That is not the case, so this becomes an at large berth.

TSC - The TSC second automatic berth goes to the TSC tournament champion. If the regular season champion (Saint Thomas) also wins the conference tournament, then the regular season runner-up.

WHAC - The WHAC tournament winner receives the second WHAC automatic berth to the national tournament. If Cornerstone wins the WHAC tournament, the WHAC tournament runner up wins the second WHAC automatic berth.